60) HUMAN NUMBERS
Extraordinary population changes have taken place in the past
150 years - human numbers have increased from one billion to 5,4
billion today. If present trends continue, there will be at least
8,5 billion people in the year 2025. The human population is
growing exponentially, i.e. the rate of increase is continuously
applied to an ever-expanding number, identical to a bank account
where interest is compounded. Human populations are growing
exponentially, or "exploding" because children, comparable to the
interest earned on a bank account, have children themselves.
Clearly, more people make greater demands on the earth's
resources. However, human impact on the earth is not determined
only by numbers of people, but also by how much energy and other
resources each person uses or wastes. Sustainable living is
possible only if human numbers and demand for resources are kept
within the earth's carrying capacity.
If we apply to our lives the rules we apply when managing other
species, we should curb population growth well before human
numbers reach our estimate of what the planet can support. This
is particularly important because whilst we know that there is
an ultimate limit to the planet's carrying capacity, we are
uncertain exactly what it is.
FACTS AND FIGURES - HUMAN POPULATION AND RESOURCE
CONSUMPTION
* Commercial energy (e.g. coal, oil, nuclear) consumption is a
useful measure of environmental impact. Energy enables
people to take resources from the environment, to change
them into usable products, and consume them. During this
process waste is produced, and often released into the
environment as pollution.
* The 42 countries in the world that use the most energy per
person contain only one quarter of the world's population but
account for four-fifths of its use of commercial energy.
* The 128 countries that use the least amount of energy per
person contain three quarters of the world's population but use
only one-fifth of commercial energy consumption.
* On average, a person in a `high energy consumption' country
consumes 18 times the commercial energy used by a person in a
'low energy consumption' country, and causes twice as much
pollution. One North American causes the emission of twice as
much carbon dioxide (see Enviro Facts "Global Warming") as a
South American, and ten times as much as someone in
South or East Asia (excluding Japan).
* Although most `high energy consumption' countries have near-
stable populations (i.e. the population growth is close to zero)
their resource consumption continues to rise.
POPULATION GROWTH AND POVERTY
Population growth rates are highest where poverty is most severe
- why is this so?
* Where there is poverty people have less security and fewer
choices. It seems that with economic growth and the range of
options it brings, people, particularly women, choose not to have
large families.
Economic growth and a widespread distribution of the
benefits it can bring, creates jobs and improves education
and health facilities. With improved education facilities,
more women will have opportunities to attend school. More
jobs means that women, drawn into the growing job market,
become wage earners in their own right. New found status and
empowerment resulting from earnings and education, coupled with
access to family planning services, allow women greater control
in deciding how many children they will bear. A desire to remain
employed, and fewer child deaths (as a result of better health
services) no doubt contribute to a decision to limit the number
of children born.
* In some societies, where financial structures such as pension
and retirement annuity schemes are not readily available, having
children is a rational choice as they provide security for their
parents' old age.
Giving people the means (through the vote, improved social and
legal status, education, access to family planning and financial
independence) to choose the size of their families will not only
help keep the population in balance with resources; it is also
a way of assuring, especially for women, the basic right of self-
determination.
Concern over population growth is a call of concern for human
progress and human equality.
SOME POPULATION STATISTICS
* The world's population of 5,3 billion is increasing by three
people every second, which is equivalent to a quarter of a
million people every day.
* South Africa's estimated population of 41,7 million is growing
at a rate of 2,6% each year, making it set to double within the
next 25 years.
TOPICS FOR DEBATE
* Some people maintain that economic growth will reduce
population growth in many countries. Is this a realistic solution
in view of the environmental damage that traditionally
accompanies much of the industrial and commercial activity
associated with economic growth?
* For sustainable living all societies need a balance between
resources and population. Could it be argued that in South Africa
the balance has been destroyed by colonial and apartheid policies
and through this process, major environmental problems have been
created? Thus it is not population numbers that threaten the
South African environment, but the lack of access to resources
on the one hand and the overconsumption of resources on the
other.
* In South Africa, is poverty a result of having too many
children - or are large families a symptom of poverty?
FURTHER READING
CARING FOR THE EARTH: A STRATEGY FOR SUSTAINABLE LIVING.
IUCN, UNEP, WWF. Gland, Switzerland, 1991.
OUR COMMON FUTURE.
World Commission on environment and development. Oxford
University Press, Oxford, 1987
UPROOTING POVERTY: THE SOUTH AFRICAN CHALLENGE.
F. Wilson and M. Ramphele (eds). David Philip, Cape Town, 1989.
BACK TO EARTH.
J. Clarke. Southern Books, Johannesburg, 1991.
GOING GREEN: PEOPLE, POLITICS AND ENVIRONMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA.
J. Cock and E. Koch (eds). Oxford University Press, Cape Town,
1991.
SOUTH AFRICAN ENVIRONMENTS INTO THE 21ST CENTURY.
B. Huntley, R. Siegfried and C. Sunter. Human, Rousseau and
Tafelberg. Cape Town, 1989.
All books available from Russel Friedman Books, PO Box 73,
Halfway House, 1685. Tel. 011-7022300/1.
CONTACT ORGANISATIONS
The Planned Parenthood Association of South Africa.
PO Box 8687, Johannesburg, 2000. Tel. 011-331 6953.
The Urban Foundation.
PO Box 1198, Johannesburg, 2000. Tel. 011-403 5500.
The Rural Foundation.
Drostdy Centre, PO Box 388, Stellenbosch 7600. Tel. 02231-76870.
Institute for Natural Resources.
University of Natal, PO Box 375, Pietermaritzburg 3200.
Tel. 0331-68317.
SAPLER (Splendidly alive people within limited environmental
resources).
PO Box 51446, Raedene, 2124. Tel. 011-640 7180.
Department of Health.
P/Bag X828, Pretoria, 0001. Tel. 012-312 0000
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